Review: Predictions for 2006

Post ImageLike a lot of people, I had some fun a year ago and made some predictions for 2006. Now that the year is pretty much over, I guess I should see how I did:

  1. SORTA RIGHT: Canada did indeed win the World Juniors, but we didn’t win the Olympic gold medal.
  2. SORTA RIGHT: In March, RIM settled its lawsuit with NTP, but it was later sued by Visto. I don’t think that has been solved yet. On the consumer front, the BlackBerry Pearl is off to a great start!
  3. WRONG: Ah not even close. The Steelers won the Superbowl.
  4. WRONG: Well we did get the Zune which has wi-fi, but I guess I was a little early on this one.
  5. MOSTLY WRONG: Apparently Toyota is still #2 in the world, but GM continues to have financial troubles.
  6. MOSTLY RIGHT: The PS3 did in fact launch, and it was in fact really expensive. Too early to tell what level of success it will have.
  7. WRONG: Man, who would have thought the Oilers would get so close! I don’t know why I picked Ottawa, they always choke.
  8. WRONG: Vista RTM’d in November, not September. I am sure the usual suspects made their usual claims.
  9. WRONG: Wishful thinking I’m afraid, but we did see Gears of War!
  10. WRONG: I think the iTunes/iPod combo still has a firm grip on the market, despite a (disputed) report that iTunes sales fell drastically in 2006.
  11. SORTA RIGHT: Apple launched their Intel-based machines very successfully, but I haven’t found anything that says their market share has increased. Some say it has decreased.
  12. SORTA RIGHT: Michael Schumacher did retire, but unfortunately didn’t win an 8th championship.
  13. RIGHT: I don’t have a link, but I seem to recall reading about Symantec suing Microsoft over security stuff in Vista.
  14. MOSTLY RIGHT: Not sure about big numbers, but TV shows made a splash on iTunes, and there are now dozens of online video stores. And for Americans, TV shows and movies are available on Xbox Live. And in general it was a huge year for video, thanks to YouTube.
  15. WRONG: No one bought TiVo.
  16. WRONG: The Liberals didn’t win the election.
  17. WRONG: Hard to say if Google stumbled in 2006. There wasn’t a big mistake, but maybe the little ones will add up.
  18. RIGHT: Looks like The Da Vinci Code was #2 at the box office this year!
  19. GLADLY WRONG: Thank goodness, the US did not invade Iran. The UN did recently impose sanctions however.
  20. RIGHT: I think lots of podcasting companies (pluggd, Podcast Ready, etc.) found success in 2006, ourselves included!

On January 7th I posted about multi-core processors. While it wasn’t in my list of predictions, it could have been:

Perhaps a year from now you won’t ask someone how fast their computer is. Instead, you might ask, how many cores do you have?

I think I almost nailed that one! Except that for the moment, the question is usually “do you have a dual core?” Close enough 🙂

I’ll probably come up with some predictions for 2007 later, and hopefully I do better next year!

Read: Predictions for 2006

Predictions for 2006

Post ImageWith the new year fast approaching, I thought it would be a good time for predictions. Not resolutions, but predictions. If you’d like to see some predictions from around the web, Alex Barnett has compiled a very interesting collection. Here are some of my predictions for the coming year, some specific and some more vague, in no particular order:

  1. Canada will win both the World Juniors Hockey Championship, and the gold medal in hockey at the Olympics.
  2. RIM will prevail in their legal troubles and will find success beyond the corporate market in 2006.
  3. The Indianapolis Colts will win the Superbowl.
  4. 2006 will finally be the year of Internet connected devices that make sense, are inexpensive, and are adopted widely. I am thinking of devices like digital cameras, little tablets for living room access, etc.
  5. Toyota will overtake General Motors as the world’s largest automaker, and GM shares will continue to plummet.
  6. Sony will launch the Playstation 3, but due to incredibly high prices, it will not match the success of it’s predecessor, nor the Xbox 360, except in Japan.
  7. The Ottawa Senators will win the Stanley Cup (at least I hope so, if Edmonton can’t).
  8. Windows Vista will RTM in September. Apple fans will claim too much is copied from OS X, and Linux fans will come out with roadmaps to copy all the functionality found in Vista.
  9. We’ll see a new Halo game (Halo 3 maybe) for the Xbox 360 sometime around November.
  10. iTunes and iPod will begin to lose their grip on the digital music market.
  11. Apple will successfully launch their Intel based machines and their market share will reach 6%.
  12. Michael Schumacher will win his 8th world drivers championship and then retire.
  13. A major security/antivirus/antispyware company will launch a lawsuit against Microsoft over Windows Vista, Windows OneCare, or other competing products.
  14. Movies, television shows, and other forms of video content will be sold in big numbers online in 2006, with almost every major content company taking part.
  15. Someone is going to buy TiVo before the year is over.
  16. The Liberals will once again win the upcoming Canadian election.
  17. It’s not really my prediction, but I agree with John Battelle who thinks Google will stumble in 2006.
  18. The Da Vinci Code will be in the top three movies at the boxoffice.
  19. The United States will invade Iran.

And in my final prediction, I am going to disagree with Jason Calacanis, who made the following prediction on December 27th:

12. No podcasting company will have any significant success in 2006, but a number of podcasters will be offered great jobs at Sirius and XM Radio.

I am going to predict that at least one company will be successful in 2006, and I fully intend to have Paramagnus be that company!