Alberta goes orange with NDP majority and an Edmonton sweep

Tonight with more than 1.4 million votes cast, Alberta elected an NDP government making Rachel Notley our 17th premier. And to the surprise of many, the polls turned out to be pretty accurate this time. After 44 years in power, the longest unbroken run in government at the provincial or federal level in Canadian history, the PC’s reign has come to an end. They won’t even be the official opposition – although they earned more votes than the Wildrose, they won 11 fewer seats.

2N0A4028
Photo by Don Voaklander

The data in this post comes from my results dashboard. All results are unofficial until May 15 when Elections Alberta is expected to announce the final results. And it could very well change, as we have a tie currently in Calgary-Glenmore between the NDP’s Anam Kazim and the PC’s Linda Johnson.

Here’s what the seat breakdown looks like:

abvote2015 seats

The NDP won with 54, Wildrose came second with 21, and the PCs finished third with 10. And here’s what the popular vote looked like:

abvote2015 votes

We’ll have to wait to see what the final numbers are like, but voter turnout is not going to be much different than it was in 2012 at 54%. My guess is it will in the range of 53-57% when the final results are published.

The NDP won support from across the province, picking up 14 seats in Calgary, 19 in Edmonton, and 20 from other parts of Alberta. Here in Edmonton, they won every seat by no fewer than 4400 votes:

edmonton orange

That means some high profile PC members are out, including former mayor Stephen Mandel, current Minister of Human Services Heather Klimchuk, current Speaker Gene Zwozdesky, former deputy preimier Thomas Lukaszuk. Other promising individuals like businessman Chris LaBossiere never made it in. It also means that Liberal Laurie Blakeman is out, our province’s longest serving opposition MLA.

Also interesting is that the number of female MLAs has gone from less than 20 to 27. A step in the right direction.

It’s no surprise that Jim Prentice announced he would step down as leader of the PC party, but it was a shock to hear that he would resign the seat he won in Calgary-Foothills and would leave public life altogether. I can appreciate that being the public eye takes a toll, but his announcement felt incredibly selfish after all his talk of joining politics again because Alberta needed him.

This was a positive election for the Alberta Party. Not only did they roughly double their vote count from 2012, they elected their first MLA in leader Greg Clark who won in Calgary-Elbow.

Albertans have spoken and the winds of change have swept through the province. Rachel Notley and the NDP ran a solid campaign and they now have a clear mandate to govern. Congratulations to all and much respect for everyone who put their name forward as a candidate in this election.

Edmonton is ground zero in the PC campaign of fear

What an interesting week in the Alberta Election, especially here in Edmonton. It started with Mayor Don Iveson’s confident State of the City address, in which he declared that “Edmonton is too important to Alberta’s future to be ignored.” He said he’s confident that Edmontonians “will not stand for any provincial government ever forgetting about Edmonton again.” The mayor contrasted a strong, vibrant Edmonton with an uncertain, shaky Alberta, and said that Edmonton could play a significant role in a provincial turnaround. Edmonton is not just the capital.

With every passing day the NDP have looked stronger and stronger. The polls, whether you trust them or not, have consistently had the NDP either in the lead or close to it, with today’s predicting a minimum victory of 25 seats. Everywhere you look there are signs of the “orange crush” sweeping across the province, but especially here in Edmonton where NDP support is strongest. The prospect of an NDP win has become so realistic in fact, that the PCs have had to take the unusual position of fighting back. And it’s here in Edmonton that they have focused their efforts.

Last week Edmonton-Rutherford PC candidate Chris Labossiere wrote a widely-criticized blog post that said the NDP “have not demonstrated any real passion or partnership with Edmonton as a dynamic and changing global city.” He wrote, “I do not trust that they share or appreciate Edmonton’s story, our energy or our ambition.”

Edmonton-Spruce Grove MP Rona Ambrose said today that an NDP government here in Alberta would be a “risky experiment.” She said that although she understands the anger being directed at the PCs, Albertans “need to think twice about electing an NDP government.”

edmonton business leaders
Photo by Dave Cournoyer

And in a press conference late this morning, five Edmonton businessmen called the NDP’s policies “amateur” and urged Albertans to make sure they’re “thinking straight” when they go to vote on Tuesday (you can read their opinion letter here). The Journal reports that together, the five have given nearly $95,000 to the PCs since 2010. There have been incredible things said every day during this election, but a couple of comments today were just on another level. Here’s what Tim Melton, executive chairman of Melcor Developments said:

“I don’t understand the unhappiness and disenchantment that appears to be out there. We don’t need amateurs running this province through these difficult times … we’ve got to stay with the government that has got us to where we are today.”

Is it really so hard to understand why Albertans are unhappy with a government that has faced scandal after scandal? With a government that has failed, again and again, to get us off the resource revenue roller coaster?

As if that wasn’t enough, NPO Zero CEO Ashif Mawji had this to say at the same news conference:

“If there’s no bottom line, then there’s no money that goes to charities. We won’t make donations to charities,” Mawji said, using the Stollery Children’s Hospital and the University of Alberta as examples of where the losses will be felt.

There’s no question that leaders like Doug Goss have done great things for Edmonton, and I’m sure they will continue to, but to threaten the charities that support Albertans when the government won’t? Disgusting.

Rachel Notley
Photo by Dave Cournoyer

Here’s what NDP leader Rachel Notley said in response today:

“Frankly, if I were them, I’d be more focused on talking with Albertans about what it is they can do to make the lives of regular families better. They’ve chosen to fearmonger about the NDP instead. I guess we’ll see … which approach is more appealing and more convincing to Alberta voters.”

Indeed we will, in just a few days.

“Changing our government is not something Albertans should be afraid of,” is what Dave wrote today. “It is something we should probably do on a regular basis.”

Voted NDP

Post ImageI mentioned yesterday that I had my choice narrowed down to two. Didn’t want to vote for the Liberals again (need some change) and I don’t align closely enough with the Greens (not that I entirely like any of the parties). For me, it was either NDP or Conservatives (I know!). I ended up voting NDP, for a number of reasons:

  • I like the Conservatives as the provincial government for Alberta, and indeed I did vote for Ralph Klein in the last election. I don’t think a federal Conservative government quite fits the same way.
  • Truthfully, Harper is a little odd, and I don’t think he’d make a very good Prime Minister.
  • The NDP won’t win the election, but a larger number of seats for them in the house is good for all of us during these minority governments (I don’t think the Conservatives will win a majority).
  • Apparently, my NDP candidate has a good shot of being the only non-Tory Edmonton MP.

So now we wait to see the results. Hopefully lots of people voted today, especially with the bogus emails floating around. Polls have closed in the east already, so it won’t be long!